Highlights

• The Old Farmer's Almanac suggests Texas may avoid a major winter storm in 2025-2026, predicting warmer-than-normal temperatures
• Snow chances remain minimal, limited to brief events in mid-November and February in northern Texas only
• Current climate patterns, including weakening La Niña condition,s point away from another Uri-style disaster
• Historical data shows Texas faces devastating winter storms roughly every decade, with Uri (2021), 1989, and 1983 as recent examples
• Weather experts caution that long-range forecasts can't predict individual storm events, only seasonal trends

Will Texas See Another Major Winter Storm This Year? What the Old Farmer's Almanac Says

With Winter Storm Uri still fresh in Texas's memory, the question on many minds is simple: Could we see another catastrophic winter storm this year?

AUSTIN, Texas (KPEL News) — It wasn't too long ago that Texas saw a massive winter storm wreak all sorts of havoc on the state's electrical grid. With that storm still fresh on the minds of Texans, the question naturally becomes "Will it happen again?"

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac's early winter outlook for 2025-2026, the answer appears to be no. But before Texans breathe too easily, it's worth examining what the forecast actually says—and what history teaches us about Texas winter weather.

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What Are the Chances of a Major Storm?

According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, which we've been referring to now for over 230 years, the forecast summary for Texas winter this year is warmer than usual, generally speaking, with below normal precipitation and snowfall in most parts of the state. The best chances we have for snow are a "brief, isolated event" in mid-November. But even that would be limited to the northern parts of Texas.

For the Texas-Oklahoma region specifically, winter will be warmer than normal, with the coldest periods in late January and early and late February. Precipitation will be below normal, with the best chances for snow in early and late February.

The 232-year-old publication's forecast suggests Texas could dodge the kind of major winter storm that has repeatedly caught the state off guard.

What's Different About This Winter?

Several atmospheric patterns are working in Texas's favor this winter. La Niña is fading - A shift from weak La Niña to neutral conditions may shake up jet stream and temperature patterns across North America.

This matters because La Niña conditions often fuel more severe winter weather across Texas. The weakening of these patterns, combined with Solar Cycle 25 peaking, suggests conditions may not align for another major freeze event.

The polar vortex may still wobble. If conditions align, a displaced vortex could send bursts of frigid air and snow deep into the U.S. However, current atmospheric indicators don't point toward the kind of sustained polar vortex disruption that brought Winter Storm Uri to Texas.

Could We Still Get Surprised?

Texas has a long history of winter storms that caught forecasters and residents off guard. Even with favorable seasonal outlooks, individual storm systems can still develop and cause significant problems.

While the full 2025–2026 winter forecast won't arrive until the Almanac hits shelves, current climate patterns suggest we're less likely to see the extreme conditions that have devastated Texas in recent winters.

But weather forecasting, especially long-range predictions, deals in probabilities, not certainties. A mild winter outlook doesn't guarantee we won't see any dangerous winter weather.

When Major Winter Storms Hit Texas

Looking at Texas's winter storm history reveals a troubling pattern: major destructive storms tend to hit roughly every decade, often when the state is least prepared.

Winter Storm Uri - February 2021: The Recent Nightmare

The February 13–17, 2021 North American winter storm was a crippling winter and ice storm that had widespread impacts across the United States, Northern Mexico, and parts of Canada from February 13 to 17, 2021. This storm redefined what a winter disaster could look like in Texas.

More than 4.5 million homes and businesses were left without power, some for several days. At least 246 people were killed directly or indirectly, with some estimates as high as 702 killed as a result of the crisis.

For the first time on record, the National Weather Service issued winter storm warnings for all 254 counties in the state—every single county in Texas faced winter storm conditions simultaneously.

The economic damage was crushing. Sources cited by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated the state's storm-related financial losses would range from $80 billion to $130 billion.

The December 1989 Freeze: A Billion-Dollar Disaster

December of 1989 was Houston's coldest December on record back to the 1880s. Between crop losses and other damage, the cold of December 1989 was estimated at the time to cause $300 to $500 million in damage (up to $1 billion in 2021 dollars) in Southeast and Coastal Texas.

This freeze demonstrated how unprepared Texas infrastructure was for sustained cold—a lesson the state apparently didn't learn before Uri struck.

December 1983: The 295-Hour Freeze

On December 18, 1983, one of the severest Arctic cold snaps in modern day plunged into Texas. The mercury dipped below freezing at 7:00 am on December 18th and remained below freezing until 2:00 pm, December 30th, for a record of 295 consecutive hours of freezing/subfreezing temperatures.

A summary of the event indicated that six people in north Texas lost their lives as a result of the cold temperatures and over a hundred were injured.

The Pattern of Surprise

What's striking about these events is how they caught Texas off guard each time:

• The Great Blizzard of 1899: Temperatures dipped as low as -23°F in Tulia. Even Galveston Bay froze over, an event so rare it became legendary.
• The 1929 Snowstorm: Amarillo was buried under 26 inches of snow, with massive drifts that immobilized the region for days.

Each time, Texas was unprepared. Each time, the damage was massive.

What Makes a Winter Storm "Major" in Texas?

Texas's vulnerability to winter weather comes from several factors:

• Most infrastructure isn't designed for sustained freezing temperatures
• The power grid struggles when demand spikes during cold snaps
• Many homes lack adequate insulation for extreme cold
• Ice storms can cripple transportation across vast distances

A "major" winter storm in Texas doesn't need to bring feet of snow. A few inches of ice or several days of sub-freezing temperatures can cause billions in damage and cost hundreds of lives.

Surprisingly, February 2021 wasn't the longest stretch on record we spent below freezing. Back in December of 1983, DFW spent 295 hours in a row below 32°. But Uri's combination of cold, precipitation, and infrastructure failure made it uniquely devastating.

How Reliable Are Long-Range Winter Forecasts?

The Old Farmer's Almanac claims that it correctly predicts the weather about 80% of the time. Ever since our first edition in 1792, The Old Farmer's Almanac has used a unique, proprietary method that combines three scientific disciplines: Solar science, climatology, and meteorology.

However, long-range forecasts predict seasonal trends, not individual storms. The Almanac can say whether a winter will be warmer or colder than average, but it can't predict if a specific storm will hit in January or March.

Even with an 80% accuracy rate, that leaves a 20% chance the forecast could be wrong—and in Texas, that 20% has historically caused tremendous damage.

The Verdict: Probably Not, But Don't Bet on It

Based on current climate patterns and the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast, Texas appears unlikely to face another major winter storm like Uri during the 2025-2026 season. The atmospheric conditions that typically fuel such disasters—strong La Niña patterns, sustained polar vortex disruptions—don't appear to be lining up.

What Texans should expect:

• Generally warmer-than-normal winter temperatures
• Below-normal precipitation and snowfall
• Limited snow chances, mainly in northern Texas during mid-November and February
• Coldest periods likely in late January and February

But Texas winter weather has a reputation for surprises. Be on the lookout for flash flood alerts in January and February of 2026, and tune in to local weather forecasts--they tend to be more accurate than these longer-range predictions, as helpful as they can be.

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The Real Question: Are We Ready If We're Wrong?

Perhaps the more important question isn't whether Texas will see a major winter storm, but whether we're prepared if one hits anyway.

Since Uri, Texas has made some improvements to power grid winterization, but many vulnerabilities remain. The mild winter prediction offers welcome relief for a state still dealing with Uri's aftermath, but it shouldn't breed complacency.

Weather forecasting isn't fortune telling. Conditions can change, storms can develop quickly, and Texas has learned the hard way that "unlikely" doesn't mean "impossible."

If the Old Farmer's Almanac gets it right, Texas may finally get a break from devastating winter weather. But if history teaches us anything, it's that Texas winters can surprise you when you least expect it.